As Antonis Samaras loses his shine, Berlin casts an eye for his successor

by Vasiliki Siouti

Serious concern and displeasure over Antonis Samaras is being increasingly expressed in Berlin, according to sources, even while there are no immediate plans to publicly question his leadership or provoke a rift with the government.

“If on the one hand there is Tsipras, and on the other there is Samaras, the choice is obvious,” a political analyst at a German newspaper told ThePressProject.

Even given the 180 degree turn performed by the Greek Prime Minister in recent years, moving from the anti-memorandum camp to align with Berlin, the Germans have not stopped demanding hard proof of his ‘compliance’. And they continue to find the evidence wanting.

Suspicion remains, as many in Germany have never been fully convinced by Mr Samaras’s conversion from a ‘populist’ to the ‘reformer’ they demanded he become.

His acceptance of the loan agreement and his early approach of ‘yes to everything’ was enough to placate them at the beginning. Today they want something more, or at least say they do, in pursuit of their desired long-term goal which is continued oversight of Greece. So questions have been raised over the Prime Minister’s increasing reluctance to implement the additional ‘reforms’.
For a short while now, officials have been making comments, off the record always, along the lines of, “Antonis Samaras is not the reformer they would like.” His promises, including the plans he announced to disburse the primary surplus before it had even been confirmed, have irritated the lenders and led some to talk of nepotism, special favours and a clientelist approach.

All the things, in other words, that they see as the root of Greece’s problems. Indicative are a number of negative articles that were published recently in the German press following the appointment of former Finance Minister Giannis Papathanasiou as Chairman of the Board of the state-controlled oil refining company, Hellenic Petroleum, which is in the process of being privatized.

Articles such as this in the Handelsblatt make allegations of continued Greek nepotism, a view which many in Germany share.

“There is of course no question of them not supporting the government. They are however preparing a plan B,” according to a German journalist. “Until the European elections they will not publicly express any disapproval. Behind closed doors it is a different story. There is however an understanding and they won’t increase the public pressure until the 25th of May. The reforms will be used as leverage, in order for Greece to remain under the absolute control of Berlin.”

The plan B for which they are preparing, is a rapprochement with SYRIZA. According to diplomatic sources, the new German ambassador, after a brief and informal meeting with Alexis Tsipras during the recent visit of the German president to Athens, stated that the SYRIZA leader had said that common ground must be found.

It is also worth noting that at a time when Mr Samaras’s stock is sinking in Berlin, that of the Mitsotakis family is on the rise – and it was never particularly low. The politicians of the Mitsotakis dynasty were always well liked, not only by the German embassy, but also by the German political and economic elite, and that is not only due to the Mitsotakis’s close ties with Siemens and the governing Christian Democratic party. Here there is of course a contradiction between the respect the Germans have for the Mitsotakis brand, and the disdain they express for nepotism, for which they hold Antonis Samaras responsible.

In some circles, in any case, behind the scenes the potential is being discussed of an alliance between the neo-liberals of New Democracy under Kyriakos Mitsotakis (son of former Prime Minister Konstantinos Mitsotakis and currently Administrative Reform Minister), the so-called modernisers of PASOK, the center-left and whoever else they can find. That said, such an alliance which is being discussed as a potential successor to the Samaras government is not that new.
 
It is an idea that has been brought up in the past, before the crisis even broke out, under the government of Kostas Karamanlis. The plan would supposedly bring the modernising forces of both parties together, which would break away from their populist wings and promote imported ‘reforms,’ but it never went ahead. Today some are thinking about taking it out of cold storage and giving it another look.