Strangely enough, the ability of the winning party to form a majority government will depend on the percentage of the vote gained by the parties that don’t make it into parliament. TPPI presents a table of all the possibilities available to the winner of the elections to form (or not) a majority government

By Paris Ayiomamitis

Greece’s next government could be decided by the smaller parties that don’t make it into parliament, according to the country’s electoral law.

Syriza has maintained a steady lead in the polls but the margin with ruling New Democracy has narrowed to the point that some conservatives even think they could pull off a surprise turnaround.

But even if Syriza does win, which is the most likely scenario suggested by the polls, it will be unlikely it can form a majority government.

Greek law awards awards 50 ‘bonus’ seats to the party that comes first, even with a difference of one vote, but no one can know what exact percentage is needed to form a majority government until the night of the elections.

This is because the percentage needed to secure 151 seats in the 300-seat parliament,  and thus the ability to form a government, depends on the percentage received by the small parties that don’t cross the 3% threshold to make it into parliament.

ln other words, the higher the total percentage tallied by these smaller parties, the lower the percentage needed by the winning party to form a majority government.

The latest polls suggest that Syriza, New Democracy, To Potami (the River) and Golden Dawn are certain to enter parliament,  and, possibly, KKE and Pasok.

The rest, including the Independent Greeks and former PM George Papandreou’s new party, Democrat Socialists’ Movement, will struggle while centre-left  Dimar will not make it.

If, for example, these smaller parties get 11% of the vote, then the percentage needed by the winning party to secure 151 seats will drop below 36%.

This could even drop further if parties like the Independent Greeks, Pasok and Papandreou's party get close to the 3% threshold.

In this case, the percentage needed to secure 151 seats could drop even below 35%.

This is not something that can be ruled out if the results of European Parliament elections last May are anything to go by when 17% of the electorate voted for ‘fringe’ parties.

Experts do not believe this will be repeated this time around. But it must be noted that the percentage needed to secure 151 seats in the national elections of 2012 was just 32.8% as 19% of the vote had gone to parties that did not make it past the 3% threshold.

The chart below (from a study made by ‘Public Issue’ polling company) shows how the percentage needed by the first party to form a majority government depends on the degree of party fragmentation.

 

If no party can form a majority government as was the case in 2012, then the incumbent President Karolos Papoulias will give the leader of the winning party three days to form a coalition.

If he fails, then Papoulias will call on the leader of the second party to try and form a coalition, and if he is not successful either, then the baton will go to third party.

If a government cannot be formed, then the president will make one final call to all the political leaders in a last ditch attempt to form a government. If nothing comes of this either, then the president will appoint the chairman of the supreme court as prime minister, parliament will be dissolved and the country will have a caretaker government and new elections must be held within a month.