The Future of the EU-Turkey Refugee Deal After Davutoglu

The German government was fast to deny a story by Build claiming Greek islands in the Aegean Sea would become central refugee camps, should the EU Turkey deal to stem migrant flows and tackle the ongoing refugee crisis failed. However, the puzzle of the agreement, especially after Ahmet Davutoglu’s exit, proves hard to keep together for EU officials.

Turkish outgoing Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu played a key role in shaping the deal and European Union leaders, such as the German Chancellor Angela Merkel counted on him for its implementation. After Davutoglu’s resignation, President Tayyip Erdogan appears less than cooperative and, in fact, more powerful.

“European countries continue to be safe havens for the political extensions of terrorist groups. When this is the case, it's a piece of black comedy that the EU criticizes our country over the definition of terrorism” Mr. Erdogan said in Ankara on Tuesday.

He accused member states of harboring terror groups and refused to bring the country’s counter terror laws in line with the European standards. Both member states and the European Parliament have expressed concerns regarding the broad definition of terrorism by Turkish authorities, which has led to the imprisonment of journalists and academics.

This issue is directly linked to the visa liberation Davutoglu fought for during the negotiations with the European Union. If Turkey ultimately does not comply with the European Union requirements, member states will have to either grant it a-la-cart liberation anyway or face again the hunting question of an appropriate response to the refugee crisis, with or without Turkey.

The deal is not going down smoothly in any case. Shocking footage emerged on Tuesday allegedly showing Syrian refugees shot or beaten to death by Turkish border police. At least five Syrian refugees have been killed by Turkish border guards -including one child- and fourteen people have been seriously injured over the past two months, Human Rights Watch said. In response to these accusations, a senior Turkish presidency official said the authenticity of the video could not be verified. Several human rights organizations blamed the European Union for making friends with the devil, since the agreement was presented.

In fact, even though refugee flows towards the EU through the Aegean Sea have stopped, tension is rising in the detention centers on the Greek islands where refugees and migrants are held, waiting to be relocated to member states or returned to Turkey.

Reports on Greek media suggest at least six people tried to escape VIAL detention center in Chios and actually started swimming back to Turkey. Fishermen rescued them and they are now again in Chios facilities.

According to a local website, refugees and migrants fear that if they are transferred back to Turkey under the deal with the European Union, they will be imprisoned there or deported back to their countries of origin. Therefore they chose to swim back, also probably hoping to attempt to approach Europe through other routes in the future.

Another local website, reporting from Lesvos, claims only sixteen people are scheduled to be returned to Turkey and only 300 asylum requests have been examined so far by the primary committee, out of which none has been promoted to the secondary committee. About ninety people are working on site, considering 25 requests on a daily basis. According to the committee’s decision, refugees and migrants should be relocated to member states or transferred to Turkey.

However, the relocation scheme appears to be a struggle as well. Several countries have refused to accept refugees under the pretext of security concerns. The European Commission said it would fine member states 250K euros per person, if they fail to host refugees accordingly to its quota system. But Poland, Hungary and Slovakia have already lashed out at the penalty proposal.

Despite mounting pressure, a spokesperson for the Commission denied reports on media regarding an alternative plan in the event of a failure on the EU-Turkey deal, whose carrying out has been put at risk by the resignation of Ahmet Davutoglu. “The Commission has a Plan A and it's to make the EU-Turkey agreement work” the spokesperson said.

EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker himself said in an interview on Saturday: “We negotiated with the Turkish government. We have the Turkish government's word and we will continue to work with the Turkish government”.

The European Parliament does not seem to be in tune with the European Commission however. According to EUObserver, group leaders in the European Parliament's “conference of presidents” last Wednesday silently stopped working on plans to give visa liberation to Turkey, as agreed, putting the future of the whole deal in doubt.

“They [EP group leaders] decided to stop the whole thing” Birgit Sippel the German centre-left coordinator told EUObserver on Tuesday.

In fact, according to EUObserver sources, some of the lead MEPs on the dossier, the group coordinators in the civil liberties committee (LIBE), found out about the suspension on Monday (9 May).

Judith Sargentini, a Dutch Green MEP, confirmed adding “[EU parliament chief Martin] Schulz said we will only start processing the file when the 72 criteria have been met”. Turkish EU Affairs Minister Volkan Bozkir refused again on Wednesday to make changes to Turkey’s anti-terrorism laws demanded by Brussels, ruling that option out.

A MEP who did not wish to be quoted said the European Parliament's stance will force the European Commission to first deal with all the outstanding issues in the agreement before sending it back to the Parliament.

All things considered, reports on German media about Angela Merkel's concerns regarding the implementation of the refugee deal in the post-Davutoglu era seem valid. However, Wolfgang Schauble, the influential German finance minister, playing down the Turkish prime minister’s exit, said there are a lot he does not like about President Erdogan “but we have to cooperate with him”. Whether Mr. Erdogan feels the same way and with what cost for the European Union remains to be seen.

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