SYRIZA
The result of the election was a historic win for the opposition party. For the first time in Greece and for the second time in Europe (the first time being the Italian Communist Party’s victory in the 1984 European elections), the Left has won a national election.
Its 4 point lead over ND is a clear game changer, and especially outside Greece it will be perceived as a dramatic change in the greek political landscape that could potentially jeopardize the stability of the Berlin and Brussels bail-out programme of the country.
BUT
SYRIZA did not succeed in securing a dramatic lead over the governing party. The party has not gained in voter support since 2012 and some analysts suggest that it has hit a ceiling. Its gains have more to do with New Democracy’s collapse and less than its own success. Its mediocre results in the local elections, where it failed to win any high profile mayoral or regional race (with the probable and notable exception of Attica – the largest constituency in Greece), show that the party has not yet been able to capitalize on the electorate’s rejection of the troika-mandated policies.
NEW DEMOCRACY
New Democracy lost the election. Despite his scare tactics with the dilemma “stability or chaos,” the Prime Minister failed to convince the people that the country is on the right track and that a vote for SYRIZA would be catastrophic. It has lost more than 7 points compared to its result in the 2012 general election and approximately 10 points compared to its result in the 2009 European elections.
BUT
Given the circumstances – that the party has presided over two years of austerity and a recession that is in its seventh consecutive year, despite having won the election in 2012 on the promise to put an end to austerity policies, renegotiate the bailout plan with the troika and restore growth in the country (subsequently failing on all three fronts), New Democracy did not do that badly: EU elections are always regarded as an interim test where the people feel free to send a message to the government.
GOLDEN DAWN
Golden Dawn is a clear winner, and its spokesman Ilias Kasidiaris will feel vindicated by the party’s third place. Despite the overwhelming indications regarding the criminal activities of some its members, despite its leadership having been thrown in jail pending trial, the neonazi party did better than well, tripling its share of the vote in urban areas such as Athens. Golden Dawn is the only party that was able to clearly increase its percentage compared to the 2012 results.
No BUT.
PASOK
PASOK is claiming a victory as the statements made by a cheerful Venizelos showed. The leader of the party was relieved to see that some of the polls that were predicting the party would be wiped out in the EU elections were proven wrong. The party registered a “decent” 9%. At the same time, ND’s free-fall makes PASOK an even more indispensable governing partner.
BUT
The party has seen its support shrink to a fraction of the power it had only 5 years ago. PASOK went from 44% in the 2009 national elections, to 12% in 2012 to 9% now in 2014. In 2012 its support had already collapsed to 12% but that didn’t prevent the party for bleeding even more. Even compared to its meagre score in 2012, the party lost one an additional 4 points – or one in three of its voters in yesterday’s elections.
Democratic Left (DIMAR)
Former junior coalition partner DIMAR was indisputably a major loser in yesterday’s election winning only 1.23% of the vote (in the June 2012 national elections Fotis Kouvelis’s party won 6.11% of the vote and 17 parliamentary seats.) The party will not be represented in the European parliament and serious questions have been raised by the result about the party’s future. In 2012 Fotis Kouvelis joined the coalition government portraying himself as the ‘responsible’ leader of a leftist party who was willing to reach a compromise with New Democracy and PASOK. But differences with the other two governing parties (and particularly over New Democracy’s tolerance of Golden Dawn) saw DIMAR pull out of the coalition after only a few months. Now the party appears to be left with an identity crisis, completely overshadowed on the left by SYRIZA.