In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF states that although the dangers have been greatly reduced after the bailout deal, yet a new round of political instability could apply new pressure to the markets. This instability could emerge during the attempt to enforce all the necessary reforms.
If such turmoil were to start in the financial and the bond sector, the whole of the Eurozon could be affected.
The IMF agrees with the projections of the Greek government about the Greek economy. According to those the GNP of the country will shrink by 2.3% in 2015 and by 1.3% in 2016.
Given that the growth will be weak in the whole of the Eurozone “the prospects are definitely worse after a period of insecurity at the beginning of the year”. The IMF also reckons that the Greek economy will shrink by 5,4% during the fourth trimester of 2015 in comparison to 2014.
For the fourth trimester of 2016, the IMF expects a growth of 3% of the GNP. In its midterm projections the IMF finds that the Greek economy will be growing by 2,4 of the GNP by 2020.
The IMF predicts that Greece will have a 0,4% deflation which will become 0 in 2016. By 2020 inflation is expected to be 1,4%.
Concerning the current account balance, the IMF projects that Greece will have a 0,7% surplus on the GNP and this will double to 1,5% by 2016. By 2020 the CAP should be -0,2% of the GNP.
Unemployment is projected to be 26.8% in 2015 and rise to 27.1% in 2016.