Only after a new German coalition government is formed will the troika give the green light to Greece to carry on with the lending agreement and have the pending tranche disbursed.
The coalition government formation processes in Berlin push back the conclusion of the fifth Troika evaluation on Greece, to January 2014.
Plugging the 2014 fiscal gap, calculated by some at €5,5 billion, becomes a hot topic and a prerequisite for the IMF to keep being part of the bailout programme.
The deadline for the conclusion of the negotiations is ecpected to be set during the Eurogroup meeting, on November 14.
As far as the disbursment of the next loan tranche is concerned, it has to be noted that according to the original plan, about €5,4 billion was to be received by the Greek state by the end of the year. However, it is now expected that only €1 billion will have been received by the end of December – and that is money already withheld since September. For the rest to be disbursed, the to-be-formed coalition government of Berlin has to give approval.
At the same time, a total of €1,05 billion in amortization are due in November and December, from the Greek state to the IMF.