In 2010’s Greek debt crisis the country faced two challenges: time and credibility. The bailout- austerity program- attempted to restore credibility through reform introduced with an aggressive timeline. Had there not been a long period of ‘fraud’ (the term used in a European Council review to describe the practices of PM Karamanlis’ government, for both ELSTAT and the ministry of Finance) Greece might not have been pushed so hard. One could argue that the country, and George Papandreou’s government, would have had a fighting chance to convince the rest of Europe that reform had to come first.
Over the past five years, everyday folk hoped for change while they paid through the nose for the country to remain in the Euro. Instead, many got higher taxes, few received more opportunity, and none had hope for change.
In late 2011, PM Papandreou, having secured the biggest debt restructuring in history, suffered a coup within his party (with a backroom deal between PM Samaras, current PASOK leader Venizelos and European Commissioner Barroso). Under PM Papademos, a coalition government was formed for 6 months to secure the PSI. The following general election brought the country to the verge of bankruptcy for the second time in two years. The election, deemed necessary by PM Samaras and Vice-PM Venizelos, disregarded all risk and pleas for stability. The move paid off for Samaras and Venizelos.
The two men remained in power for the better part of three years, claiming success, progress, and change. They went as far to promise wage increase and lower taxation. In truth, they were attempting yet another political trick, ahead of Troikas’ last evaluation of the program.
First, they hyped public opinion on a fake ‘success story.’ They then attempted to blackmail Troika and European partners alike to turn a blind eye- ‘or else they would have a neo-communist SYRIZA government to deal with’, before finally bringing forward the appointment for presidency with near certainty that it would lead to general elections. Having not sufficiently cut public expenditure, nor having revived any part of the economy to create new tax revenue, new tax measures had to be taken. And neither ND nor PASOK were willing to accept any political cost incurred by their failure to reform through cuts and revenue, as signed in the MOU.
Should Samaras lose in these coming elections, ND bets are on SYRIZA making a mess of things, and forcing one more election in the short term. If SYRIZA succeeds, all the better for Samaras, since another political force will take on the cost of ND’s failure, only for ND to rise again into government, much like they did in 2009-2011 to G. Papandreou’s government.
In all likelihood, SYRIZA will make a mess of things, unless they mature dramatically while in power. The political naiveté that allows the most prominent candidate for PM, Alexis Tsipras to claim, days ago, that there was a ‘false play’ in ELSTAT’s figures for the general deficit of 2009, is scary. He basically claims that today’s Eurostat would willingly allow a country member to falsify statistics, for reasons that belong in the realm of conspiracy theories. Any accusation of ELSTAT, which operates under Eurostat’s strict monitoring, would mean nothing else. Mr. Tsipras’ claim imply that someone in Europe has lost his or her mind, and is gambling away all Eurozone member states’ economies- since any hit on Eurostat’s credibility would devalue the common currency in the time needed for Mr. Tsipras to cry “conspiracy.”
A few weeks ago, a report came out by the independent Committee for Good Practices, stating ELSTAT has faced government interference attempting to delay its issuing of its report on deficit.
The country is going through a third election in five years with its two main rivals trying to find non-solutions to their lack leadership and commitment to reform, and an exodus plan. The government is trying to hide the numbers, and the opposition denies they ever existed (going back to 2009’s deficit that created the need for severe austerity and a non-negotiable MoU).
In this political landscape, former PM George Papandreou gave an ultimatum to both the coalition government and his own party, PASOK, pending on the successful appointment of the new President and a newfound commitment to reform. When its terms were not met, he formed a new party “Kinima” (meaning Movement) that has less than 25 days to make it into Parliament. It’s a genuine effort, with roots in social-democracy, to start a progressive political force aspiring to change.
No one can safely predict what the future holds for Greece on the eve of the 26th of January. Unfortunately, it is still safe to say that there is still a long way to go before any resolution in this Greek drama.
