A new expert report into the deadly Tempe train crash report, prepared by Professor Dimitris Karonis of the National Technical University of Athens, who specialises in Fuel and Lubricant Technology, was submitted to the investigating appeals judge and published on Tuesday. It states that the formation of a fireball under conditions of a high-intensity electric arc is "feasible", noting that visual evidence shows flashes likely linked to such an arc. As for the theory of illegal cargo being responsible for the fireball, the report concludes that there is no sign of such materials on the train – a conclusion based on the police’s official inspection report and videos submitted by the company Interstar. The authenticity of the videos, however, have been questioned by technical advisors representing victims’ families. The government quickly celebrated the findings, claiming that the long-standing "cover-up" narrative had now been definitively debunked.

The new expert report suggests that the huge fireball that followed the collision could plausibly have been caused by an electric arc – and not necessarily by any undeclared or illegal cargo on board. This detail is considered crucial, as several of the 57 fatalities may have resulted from the fireball itself rather than the initial crash.

In the detailed 123-page report, Karonis explains that under normal conditions, silicone oil M50 EL cannot on its own create a fireball, nor is there evidence of a substance that could have formed a flammable mixture. However, he adds that “the potential for flammable by-products to be created through the breakdown of silicone oils in an electric arc scenario should not be dismissed.”

He references the findings of the Hellenic Aviation and Railway Safety Investigation Agency (EODASAAM), which recorded three strong flashes in video footage that were classified as electric arcs. Based on these observations, Karonis reaffirms that a fireball could have formed under such conditions.

Interestingly, earlier versions of the EODASAAM report had raised the possibility of an unknown fuel source being involved, suggesting that the fireball was unlikely to have originated from the silicone oil used in the train’s technical equipment. However, due to missing evidence – partly attributed to the site being hastily covered up – and the fact that the investigation began several months after the incident, definitive conclusions were hard to reach. This reference was later removed from the report.

Still, Karonis stresses that the scenario involving an electric arc remains a plausible explanation. He writes:

“Silicone oils of this type can ignite when ambient temperatures exceed 300°C. According to Hellenic Train’s documentation, under normal operating conditions, the temperature of the transformer and its silicone fluid does not typically exceed 90°C – well below the ignition point. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that silicone oils contributed to the fire only after the fireball had already developed.”

In addressing the allegations of illicit cargo being present on the freight train, the report refers to the police inspection and three videos submitted by Interstar’s lawyer nearly two years after the incident. These show the train passing through the Platamonas South Tunnel and the Rapsani signalling area.

Karonis concludes there’s no indication that the freight train was carrying volatile substances capable of creating a flammable vapour cloud that could trigger a fireball:

“From both the freight manifest and the police inspection, there is no record of any material with properties required to form a flammable vapour cloud. The three video files, confirmed as authentic by the Hellenic Police’s Forensic Division, show that three open wagons carried only metal sheets – with no signs of tanks or containers storing liquids. Moreover, the rest of the train’s containers were either empty or held goods consistent with the manifest, and none showed signs of fire damage.”

Government: “Cover-up narrative falls apart”

Government spokesman Pavlos Marinakis, speaking to SKAI TV, said the report brought a conclusive end to what he described as a “vile attempt to manipulate public opinion”:

“This expert report, based on hard evidence, puts an end to the most grotesque campaign of misinformation. Professor Karonis, appointed by the judiciary, has ruled out the existence of illegal cargo – which formed the backbone of the opposition’s conspiracy theory. That narrative has now collapsed with a bang.”

He went on to criticise opposition parties for exploiting the tragedy, saying they deliberately misled the public and tried to shift the focus away from the state’s and individuals’ responsibilities:

“They weaponised a tragic event with very serious causes. They told lies to enrage the public, turned comedy shows into courtrooms without ever presenting real evidence. We faced threats and slander.”

Targeting PASOK in particular, Marinakis accused the party and its leader Nikos Androulakis of irresponsibly jumping to conclusions:

“Instead of waiting for the final judicial report, PASOK treated speculation as fact, helped push a no-confidence vote, and aligned itself with fringe parties. They now owe an explanation to the public.”

He concluded by saying that “those who spread the false narrative must now be held accountable”

Victims’ families lawyer: Report adds nothing new to the case

Mary Hatzikostantinou, lawyer for victims’ families, criticised the report for failing to clearly explain the cause of the fireball. She said it offers no new evidence for the case and does not contribute to the ongoing investigation. While it rules out hydrocarbons, it does not identify what caused the fireball that killed so many, despite earlier simulations.

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